Mes: noviembre 2018

Venezuela and Cuba, late November 2018

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The Castro dictatorship is trying to hold on to its Venezuela quasi-colony. Venezuelan society is about 80% of the way towards total collapse, but the cubans are trying a dual approach: they are preparing an armed militia for urban warfare, while allowing the colombian narcoguerrillas (ELN and FARC) to control large portions of territory south of the central cordillera (the venezuelan llanos and portions of the Amazon jungle).

The cubans realize armed irregulars which lack popular support are doomed to failure. So they are also scheming a false government change, which would have Maduro replaced by a different puppet backed by boligarchs and “opposition leaders” they have created and financed, like Manuel Rosales, an old corrupt populist from Zulia who opposed Chavez, was jailed, and now serves as a cardboard prop after being released.

The question in my mind is whether Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador are willing to see a Cuban satrap emerge on their borders in exchange for the end of the flood of refugees, which is now approaching four million. And of course whether Trump handles this with care.

Right now Pedro Sanchez is in Havana, stayed there in spite of the ongoing Brexit crisis he created, and I suspect he’s getting guidance from Havana. Sanchez governs with the support of the Podemos communists who are closely tied to Maduro and therefore to the Castro mafia. So the Europeans may be about to get blackmailed into accepting the “alternate Cuban puppet ruling Venezuela” option.